Defeat of Toomey-Manchin Illustrates Problems With Political System and Power of NRA

The defeat of the Toomey-Manchin sponsored gun control bill, which would expand background checks on gun transactions is an unfortunate product of our divided political system and the extreme power of the National Rifle Association and supporters of firearms rights.

As widespread public polling suggests, a majority of Americans support some form of increased gun control.  A substantial minority would like to see it stay the same, rather than decrease.  Therefore, there is strong support for some sort of gun control.  While it is unfortunate that it is only after a tragedy such as the shooting in Newtown, Connecticut that strong gun-control supporters come out, it is good nonetheless that efforts are being made so that gun related tragedies will never happen again.

UConn/Hartford Courant Poll

from CNN

The need for action seems lost upon multiple members of congress. Along with the defeat of the bill providing for background checks, there is a signature lack of urgency on the part on congressmen to do something about America's gun problem.  Some members obviously believe that no problem exists.  They believe strongly in the Second Amendments and contend that guns make us safer instead of harming us. 

Their arguments, though don't really hold up.  Few detailed and widespread studies have been completed on the effect of guns on crime.  Most of what goes on in the gun control arena is mostly rhetoric, and poor rhetoric at that.  The argument that the solution to criminals having guns is to arm everyone, and hope that the shootout turns out A-ok is a recipe for disaster.  

There is legitimate concern of the part of gun rights activists that gun laws will not be effective at taking away guns from criminals while hurting those that want (or possibly need?) guns and a perfectly sane. However, this is the purpose of the gun control debate and the bills and their amendments going through congress.  Some action needs to be taken, and it's high time to figure out if effective gun control can work on a national scale.  Voting against the bills and filibustering them too only delays a productive process.

There are a lot of guns in America, and collectively, they do a lot of damage.  Rather sane people can die or kill someone in accidental shootings.  Many more people die in accidental gun related deaths than mass shootings or murders.  With effective gun control, we can limit these from happening.  Again, stopping these latest gun control bills from going through the senate stops the debate on how to save lives.

A significant problem in the gun debate in congress is the political clout of the NRA.  All too often, we see that the best interests and the will of the people take second chair to the powers of special interests.  In this case, the main special interest on guns is the National Rifle Association.

The NRA has huge power in congress, mostly because of the way it funds candidates for elections.  These candidates rely on the NRA for financial support.  The NRA is also quite powerful because of its vocality and presence in many Americans' lives.  The NRA is adept politically, one of the reasons that it has been so successful at resisting further gun control.  They have a rather straightforward plan and execute well, made easier by large coffers and candidates eager for their monetary and vocal support. 

Sunlight Foundation

More detailed information on which candidates received money from the NRA can be found here.  This is a link to which candidates for the House of Representatives received money.  There is a tab for the Senate as well, as well as a map of the NRA's electoral impact.  It is quite substantial.  In the 2010 midterm elections, the NRA gave money to or endorsed candidates from every state excluding Hawaii.

Right now, the best hope for gun control legislation is if a group of citizens and private donors organize to create a powerful political organization to combat the power of the NRA.  The people need to speak at the ballot box if gun control is going to become a reality.  At the moment, hopes are dim that congress by itself will take any meaningful action.

Problems In Our World: More Complex Than You Might Think

Many of the problems that have arisen over the past decades seem, on face value, to be about religion.  While these conflicts, such as the ones in Northern Ireland and the Middle East, do have religious tensions that lead to escalation, the problems are more complicate than that.

These problems can often be traced back to geopolitical, economic, or social issues.  In its most basic form, conflict arises between those that have resources and those that don't.  Competition for power, supremacy, resources, and many other aspects of a successful society has been fraught with conflict.  As Graham Fuller argues in his book, A World Without Islam, the world would not be too different today without Islam because of these alternate conflicts that exist.  You can hear more about this here, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129131992, where Fuller is interviewed on NPR's Talk of the Nation.

Fuller's Book

If we realize how conflicts come about and realize that we are dealing with a very complex part of the world in the Middle East, we may have more success in our endeavors.  Problems hardly ever boil down to white and black, regardless of how they are painted to the electorate.  Realizing the comprehensiveness of the situation can be our best strategy going forward as we attempt to find peace in the Middle East.

The Hamilton Project's Interactive Budget Simulator

The Hamilton Project has recently put together an interactive simulator in which users can craft their own version of the US budget.  By making selections, users can calculate how the implementation of certain cuts or revenue proposals will impact the budget over a 10 year period.  We encourage everyone to try their hand at this.  Above all, it shows how difficult it is to make a lasting impact on the US debt without making hard sacrifices.

Turnover in Senate Increasing, But Don't Expect Sweeping Changes

Last month, both FiveThirtyEight and CNN Politics did in-depth pieces on a curious phenomenon in the United States Senate.  As the graphic shows below, recently there have been an unusually high amount of Senate retirements.  This session is the third consecutive legislative session to show this.  45 Senators are serving in their first 6 year term.

There are multiple possible explanations for why this is occurring   Some believe that this is simply a generational shift.  Every 20-30 years, historians have found, their is higher than average turnover.  We seem to be hitting one of those periods of high turnover.

Others contend that these senators are leaving because right now, being an ex-senator is far more lucrative than being a current senator.  Jim DeMint notably left the Senate to take a well-paying job as president of the Heritage Foundation.  This is indicative of a new trend where jobs taken following retirement from congress are far better paying than they used to be.  Retired legislators can make money lobbying in the private sector or influencing their former colleagues.  

There are also some who argue it is the increased partisan nature of the Senate that has driven many to retire.  When Maine Senator Olympia Snowe retired, she cited the political climate as a principle reason she was leaving.  

This is also the main reason that despite the turnover in the Senate, the division in congress is likely to continue.  Do not expect sweeping reforms to come out of the Senate, for the people being elected are partisan standard waivers replacing far more moderate retirees.  At the ballot box, moderates are also being replaced by party hardliners.  Elizabeth Warren, a noted liberal, defeated moderate Republican Scott Brown, just one example of how polarized the Senate and the rest of congress is becoming.  Moderates are a dying breed in seems, and we are experiencing an extraordinary amount of partisan division.

Don't keep your fingers crossed that the new senators will want to compromise and work on political reform   They have their own agendas, and soon they will be up for reelection, meaning they will need to bend to their constituents in order to assure that they can remain in office.  

The Importance of Manufacturing

As the United States begins its rebound from the recession, it is important to highlight how important the manufacturing industry is the the our nation's economy.  Manufacturing was one of the economic sectors that was hit hardest by the recession, and many of those jobs will either never or take a very long time to return.  

While there has been a significant increase of offshoring with manufacturing jobs, there is still a lot of work done here in America.  While some would argue that manufacturing is not as critical as it once was to warrant government support because of weak job creation numbers, these people miss a critical part of why we need manufacturing jobs in the United States.

large scale employment is not the main benefit of a strong manufacturing sector in our economy.  Support of manufacturing, specifically advanced manufacturing, will help the United States retain its status as a global hotspot for innovation and technological advancement.  Today, this is the main source of US competitiveness.  We have to realize that we cannot make everything anymore.  Manufacturing on large scales is much cheaper in east Asian countries.  Where we do have an edge, however, is the innovative spirit and technological know-how to come up with and create new technologies that will make world a better place.  

Today, the manufacturing sector makes up only around 11 percent of our nation's GDP.  As you can see from the graph above, the United States has experienced a constant downward trend in this statistic.  This is fairly constant with the rest of the world, on average.  However, despite it small share of GDP, according to the Brookings Institution, the manufacturing sector conducts 68 percent of research and development in the United States.  Brookings also notes that 22 percent of US manufacturers introduce new processes that increase productivity, as opposed to only 8 percent of non-manufacturers.  Additionally, manufacturing took up 60 percent of US exports despite its modest share in GDP.  

Although now a smaller part of our economy, the manufacturing sector is still very critical for the well being of our entire nation.